Matchday 32 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 26, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 2–1 Sevilla: lucky or expected?
Osasuna beat Sevilla 2–1, and the goals lean Osasuna’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Sevilla, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.6 here and Sevilla 1.0.
What the goals say
Luck index +36 Osasuna lucky · −36 Sevilla
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 5, 3 end level, Sevilla win 2.
- 1 OSA 1 SEV 0
- 2 OSA 1 SEV 0
- 3 OSA 2 SEV 0
- 4 OSA 3 SEV 1
- 5 OSA 4 SEV 0
- 6 OSA 0 SEV 0
- 7 OSA 1 SEV 1
- 8 OSA 1 SEV 1
- 9 OSA 0 SEV 2
- 10 OSA 1 SEV 2
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 69' | Neal Maupay (Sevilla) | 0–1 | +40% Sevilla |
| 2. 80' | Raul Garcia (Osasuna) | 1–1 | +44% Osasuna |
| 90+9' | Alejandro Catena (Osasuna) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Osasuna win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2025-26
- Betis 1–1 Real Madrid Apr 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Alavés 2–1 Mallorca Apr 25, 2026 · replay 58% for Alavés
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Apr 25, 2026 · replay 73% for Barcelona
- Valencia 2–1 Girona Apr 25, 2026 · replay 64% for Valencia
- Atlético 3–2 Athletic Apr 25, 2026 · replay 76% for Atlético
- Rayo 3–3 Real Sociedad Apr 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Oviedo 1–2 Elche Apr 26, 2026 · replay 54% for Elche
- Villarreal 2–1 Celta Apr 26, 2026 · replay 67% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 0–0 Levante Apr 27, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws