Matchday 4 · La Liga 2026-27 · September 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 1–0 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Betis beat Real Madrid 1–0, but the goals lean toward Real Madrid: 5 wins in 10 to Betis’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.2 here and Real Madrid 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 |
 Real Madrid | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +62 Betis very lucky · −62 Real Madrid
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 3, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 5.
- 1 BET 1 RMA 0
- 2 BET 1 RMA 0
- 3 BET 3 RMA 1
- 4 BET 0 RMA 0
- 5 BET 1 RMA 1
- 6 BET 1 RMA 4
- 7 BET 1 RMA 3
- 8 BET 0 RMA 2
- 9 BET 0 RMA 1
- 10 BET 0 RMA 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Real Madrid 51% to win, 25% for a draw, Betis 24%. Betis won, a result we gave 24%. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 23% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Our source lists this match’s score but not who scored or when, so there is no timeline of it. The replay above needs only the score.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Betis win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2026-27
- Athletic 3–0 Atlético Sep 5, 2026 · replay 48% for Athletic
- Rayo 3–2 Racing Sep 5, 2026 · replay 62% for Rayo
- Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo Sep 5, 2026 · replay 40% for Deportivo
- Valencia 0–5 Barcelona Sep 6, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Alavés 5–2 Osasuna Sep 6, 2026 · replay 82% for Alavés
- Málaga 0–0 Levante Sep 6, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Espanyol 1–1 Sevilla Sep 6, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Celta Sep 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Elche 2–3 Real Sociedad Sep 7, 2026 · replay 39% for Real Sociedad