Matchday 5 · La Liga 2026-27 · September 13, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 1–1 Málaga: lucky or expected?
Celta and Málaga drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Celta win 5 of 10, Málaga 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.2 here and Málaga 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 |
 Málaga | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −20 Celta about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 5, 3 end level, Málaga win 2.
- 1 CEL 1 MAL 0
- 2 CEL 1 MAL 0
- 3 CEL 1 MAL 0
- 4 CEL 2 MAL 0
- 5 CEL 4 MAL 1
- 6 CEL 0 MAL 0
- 7 CEL 1 MAL 1
- 8 CEL 0 MAL 0
- 9 CEL 0 MAL 2
- 10 CEL 1 MAL 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Celta 56% to win, 26% for a draw, Málaga 18%. It ended level; we gave a draw 26%. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 49% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Our source lists this match’s score but not who scored or when, so there is no timeline of it. The replay above needs only the score.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 5, 2026-27
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia Sep 11, 2026 · replay 82% for Sevilla
- Racing 2–1 Alavés Sep 12, 2026 · replay 40% for Racing
- Osasuna 0–2 Espanyol Sep 12, 2026 · replay 59% for Espanyol
- Athletic 1–1 Elche Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Sep 12, 2026 · replay 80% for Real Madrid
- Levante 2–4 Barcelona Sep 13, 2026 · replay 82% for Barcelona
- Getafe 1–1 Deportivo Sep 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Real Sociedad 0–3 Atlético Sep 13, 2026 · replay 68% for Atlético
- Villarreal 1–2 Betis Sep 14, 2026 · replay 44% for Betis