Matchday 7 · La Liga 2026-27 · September 19, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 0–0 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Athletic and Alavés drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Athletic win 5 of 10, Alavés 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.1 here and Alavés 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 |
 Alavés | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index −16 Athletic about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 5, 3 end level, Alavés win 2.
- 1 ATH 2 ALA 1
- 2 ATH 1 ALA 0
- 3 ATH 1 ALA 0
- 4 ATH 2 ALA 0
- 5 ATH 3 ALA 0
- 6 ATH 0 ALA 0
- 7 ATH 1 ALA 1
- 8 ATH 0 ALA 0
- 9 ATH 0 ALA 2
- 10 ATH 0 ALA 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Athletic 46% to win, 28% for a draw, Alavés 26%. It ended level; we gave a draw 28%. The final margin was 0.4 goals from ours; 72% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
No goals: Athletic and Alavés drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (66% for Athletic, draws counted half).
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 7, 2026-27
- Espanyol 1–3 Elche Sep 18, 2026 · replay 42% for Elche
- Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Sep 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Celta 5–0 Racing Sep 19, 2026 · replay 59% for Celta
- Sevilla 1–3 Barcelona Sep 19, 2026 · replay 73% for Barcelona
- Getafe 1–0 Málaga Sep 20, 2026 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Atlético 2–1 Real Madrid Sep 20, 2026 · replay 54% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Betis Sep 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Villarreal 3–1 Levante Sep 20, 2026 · replay 66% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–3 Real Sociedad Sep 20, 2026 · replay 49% for Real Sociedad