Matchday 25 · Premier League 2025-26 · February 6, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leeds 3–1 Forest: lucky or expected?
Leeds beat Forest 3–1, and the goals lean Leeds’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Forest, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.5 here and Forest 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Leeds United | 3 |
 Nottingham Forest | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Leeds lucky · −43 Forest
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leeds win 4, 3 end level, Forest win 3.
- 1 LEE 3 NFO 2
- 2 LEE 1 NFO 0
- 3 LEE 2 NFO 0
- 4 LEE 3 NFO 0
- 5 LEE 1 NFO 1
- 6 LEE 0 NFO 0
- 7 LEE 0 NFO 0
- 8 LEE 0 NFO 2
- 9 LEE 1 NFO 2
- 10 LEE 1 NFO 2
The goals
Leeds’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 26' | Jayden Bogle (Leeds) | 1–0 | +25% Leeds |
| 2. 30' | Noah Okafor (Leeds) | 2–0 | +13% Leeds |
| 3. 49' | Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) | 3–0 | +3% Leeds |
| 4. 86' | Lorenzo Lucca (Forest) | 3–1 | +0% Forest |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leeds win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2025-26
- Man United 2–0 Tottenham Feb 7, 2026 · replay 70% for Man United
- Burnley 0–2 West Ham Feb 7, 2026 · replay 52% for West Ham
- Fulham 1–2 Everton Feb 7, 2026 · replay 43% for Everton
- Wolves 1–3 Chelsea Feb 7, 2026 · replay 67% for Chelsea
- Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa Feb 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland Feb 7, 2026 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Newcastle 2–3 Brentford Feb 7, 2026 · replay 46% for Brentford
- Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace Feb 8, 2026 · replay 34% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–2 Man City Feb 8, 2026 · replay 59% for Man City