Semi-finals · World Cup 2018 · July 11, 2018 · AET
Croatia 2–1 England: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat England 2–1 after extra time, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Croatia go through 7 times in 10. Croatia made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +33 Croatia lucky · −33 England
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Croatia win 5, 3 end level, England win 2.
- 1 CRO 2 ENG 1
- 2 CRO 1 ENG 0
- 3 CRO 1 ENG 0
- 4 CRO 2 ENG 0
- 5 CRO 3 ENG 0
- 6 CRO 0 ENG 0
- 7 CRO 0 ENG 0
- 8 CRO 0 ENG 0
- 9 CRO 0 ENG 1
- 10 CRO 1 ENG 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 47%, 34% end level, England win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 5.3% |
| Croatia by 2 | 13.9% |
| Croatia by 1 | 27.9% |
| Draw | 33.8% |
| England by 1 | 14.9% |
| England by 2 | 3.6% |
| England by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 22 | 2 | 2.14 | −0.14 |
 England | 11 | 1 | 0.55 | +0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Kieran Trippier scored from a free kick | 0.09 |
| 67' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 71' | Ante Rebić didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 106' | Mario Mandžukić didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 108' | Mario Mandžukić scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Kieran Trippier scored from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +22% ENG |
| 2 | 67' | The game turned hereIvan Perišić scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +30% CRO |
| 3 | 71' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% ENG |
| 4 | 71' | Ante Rebić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +13% ENG |
| 5 | 82' | Mario Mandžukić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ENG |
| 6 | ET 105' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ENG |
| 7 | ET 106' | Mario Mandžukić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +17% ENG |
| 8 | ET 108' | Mario Mandžukić scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +32% CRO |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Croatia go through in 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2018
- France 1–0 Belgium Jul 10, 2018 · replay 82% for France