Matchday 15 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 20, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
HSV 1–1 Frankfurt: lucky or expected?
HSV and Frankfurt drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, HSV win 4 of 10, Frankfurt 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, HSV were expected to score 1.6 here and Frankfurt 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Hamburger SV | 1 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +1 HSV about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. HSV win 4, 3 end level, Frankfurt win 3.
- 1 HSV 2 SGE 1
- 2 HSV 1 SGE 0
- 3 HSV 4 SGE 2
- 4 HSV 6 SGE 3
- 5 HSV 1 SGE 1
- 6 HSV 1 SGE 1
- 7 HSV 3 SGE 3
- 8 HSV 0 SGE 3
- 9 HSV 2 SGE 3
- 10 HSV 0 SGE 1
The goals
HSV’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 19' | Albert Sambi Lokonga (HSV) | 1–0 | +22% HSV |
| 2. 26' | Hugo Larsson (Frankfurt) | 1–1 | +24% Frankfurt |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Dortmund 2–0 Gladbach Dec 19, 2025 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Augsburg 0–0 Werder Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Köln 0–1 Union Berlin Dec 20, 2025 · replay 44% for Union Berlin
- Wolfsburg 3–4 Freiburg Dec 20, 2025 · replay 53% for Freiburg
- Stuttgart 0–0 Hoffenheim Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Leipzig 1–3 Leverkusen Dec 20, 2025 · replay 46% for Leverkusen
- Mainz 0–0 St. Pauli Dec 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Heidenheim 0–4 Bayern Dec 21, 2025 · replay 85% for Bayern