Matchday 15 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 21, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Heidenheim 0–4 Bayern: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Heidenheim 4–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Heidenheim were expected to score 1.3 here and Bayern 3.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Heidenheim | 0 |
 Bayern Munich | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index +15 Bayern about even · −15 Heidenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Heidenheim win 1, 1 ends level, Bayern win 8.
- 1 FCH 2 FCB 1
- 2 FCH 3 FCB 3
- 3 FCH 0 FCB 6
- 4 FCH 0 FCB 5
- 5 FCH 1 FCB 5
- 6 FCH 1 FCB 4
- 7 FCH 1 FCB 4
- 8 FCH 1 FCB 3
- 9 FCH 0 FCB 1
- 10 FCH 1 FCB 2
The goals
Heidenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 15' | Josip Stanisic (Bayern) | 0–1 | +24% Bayern |
| 2. 32' | Michael Olise (Bayern) | 0–2 | +18% Bayern |
| 3. 86' | Luis Diaz (Bayern) | 0–3 | +0% Bayern |
| 90+2' | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 0–4 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Dortmund 2–0 Gladbach Dec 19, 2025 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Augsburg 0–0 Werder Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- HSV 1–1 Frankfurt Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Köln 0–1 Union Berlin Dec 20, 2025 · replay 44% for Union Berlin
- Wolfsburg 3–4 Freiburg Dec 20, 2025 · replay 53% for Freiburg
- Stuttgart 0–0 Hoffenheim Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Leipzig 1–3 Leverkusen Dec 20, 2025 · replay 46% for Leverkusen
- Mainz 0–0 St. Pauli Dec 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws