luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 15 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 20, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Köln 0–1 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?

Union Berlin beat Köln 1–0, but the goals lean toward Köln: 4 wins in 10 to Union Berlin’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Köln were expected to score 1.7 here and Union Berlin 1.4.

Full time

Goals
1. FC Köln 0
Union Berlin 1

December 20, 2025

Luck index +56 Union Berlin lucky · −56 Köln

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Köln win 4, 3 end level, Union Berlin win 3.

  1. 1 KOE 4 FCU 3
  2. 2 KOE 2 FCU 1
  3. 3 KOE 2 FCU 0
  4. 4 KOE 3 FCU 0
  5. 5 KOE 2 FCU 2
  6. 6 KOE 0 FCU 0
  7. 7 KOE 0 FCU 0
  8. 8 KOE 0 FCU 3
  9. 9 KOE 1 FCU 2
  10. 10 KOE 0 FCU 1

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+1' Andras Schaefer (Union Berlin) 0–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Union Berlin win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 15 matches, 2025-26 · Köln · Union Berlin

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