luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 15 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · December 21, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Mainz 0–0 St. Pauli: lucky or expected?

Mainz and St. Pauli drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Mainz win 6 of 10, St. Pauli 1, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.5 here and St. Pauli 0.7.

Full time

Goals
Mainz 05 0
FC St. Pauli 0

December 21, 2025

Luck index −19 Mainz about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Mainz win 6, 3 end level, St. Pauli win 1.

  1. 1 M05 2 STP 1
  2. 2 M05 1 STP 0
  3. 3 M05 2 STP 1
  4. 4 M05 2 STP 0
  5. 5 M05 2 STP 0
  6. 6 M05 3 STP 0
  7. 7 M05 1 STP 1
  8. 8 M05 1 STP 1
  9. 9 M05 1 STP 1
  10. 10 M05 0 STP 1

The goals

No goals: Mainz and St. Pauli drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (69% for Mainz, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 15 matches, 2025-26 · Mainz · St. Pauli

More from matchday 15, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 15, 2025-26