Matchday 16 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 9, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Frankfurt 3–3 Dortmund: lucky or expected?
Frankfurt and Dortmund drew 3–3. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Frankfurt win 3 of 10, Dortmund 5, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Frankfurt were expected to score 1.4 here and Dortmund 2.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +14 Frankfurt about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Frankfurt win 3, 2 end level, Dortmund win 5.
- 1 SGE 2 BVB 1
- 2 SGE 2 BVB 1
- 3 SGE 4 BVB 1
- 4 SGE 1 BVB 1
- 5 SGE 1 BVB 1
- 6 SGE 1 BVB 5
- 7 SGE 0 BVB 2
- 8 SGE 2 BVB 4
- 9 SGE 2 BVB 3
- 10 SGE 0 BVB 1
The goals
Frankfurt’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 10' | Maximilian Beier (Dortmund) | 0–1 | +23% Dortmund |
| 2. 22' | Can Uzun (Frankfurt, penalty) | 1–1 | +25% Frankfurt |
| 3. 68' | Felix Nmecha (Dortmund) | 1–2 | +37% Dortmund |
| 4. 71' | Younes Ebnoutalib (Frankfurt) | 2–2 | +38% Frankfurt |
| 90+2' | Mahmoud Dahoud (Frankfurt) | 3–2 | |
| 90+5' | Carney Chukwuemeka (Dortmund) | 3–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Heidenheim 2–2 Köln Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Freiburg 2–1 HSV Jan 10, 2026 · replay 60% for Freiburg
- Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leverkusen 1–4 Stuttgart Jan 10, 2026 · replay 47% for Stuttgart
- Gladbach 4–0 Augsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Gladbach
- Bayern 8–1 Wolfsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 88% for Bayern
- Werder 0–2 Hoffenheim Jan 27, 2026 · replay 66% for Hoffenheim
- St. Pauli 1–1 Leipzig Jan 27, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws