Matchday 16 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Freiburg 2–1 HSV: lucky or expected?
Freiburg beat HSV 2–1, and the goals lean Freiburg’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for HSV, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.6 here and HSV 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 2 |
 Hamburger SV | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +40 Freiburg lucky · −40 HSV
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Freiburg win 5, 3 end level, HSV win 2.
- 1 SCF 1 HSV 0
- 2 SCF 3 HSV 2
- 3 SCF 1 HSV 0
- 4 SCF 3 HSV 1
- 5 SCF 3 HSV 0
- 6 SCF 2 HSV 2
- 7 SCF 1 HSV 1
- 8 SCF 3 HSV 3
- 9 SCF 0 HSV 2
- 10 SCF 0 HSV 1
The goals
Freiburg’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 48' | Luka Vuskovic (HSV) | 0–1 | +30% HSV |
| 2. 53' | Vincenzo Grifo (Freiburg, penalty) | 1–1 | +32% Freiburg |
| 3. 83' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 2–1 | +44% Freiburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Frankfurt 3–3 Dortmund Jan 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Heidenheim 2–2 Köln Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leverkusen 1–4 Stuttgart Jan 10, 2026 · replay 47% for Stuttgart
- Gladbach 4–0 Augsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Gladbach
- Bayern 8–1 Wolfsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 88% for Bayern
- Werder 0–2 Hoffenheim Jan 27, 2026 · replay 66% for Hoffenheim
- St. Pauli 1–1 Leipzig Jan 27, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws