Matchday 16 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 11, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bayern 8–1 Wolfsburg: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Wolfsburg 8–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bayern were expected to score 3.7 here and Wolfsburg 1.1. An own goal helped Bayern.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 8 |
 VfL Wolfsburg | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +12 Bayern about even · −12 Wolfsburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bayern win 8, 1 ends level, Wolfsburg win 1.
- 1 FCB 2 WOB 1
- 2 FCB 4 WOB 2
- 3 FCB 2 WOB 0
- 4 FCB 3 WOB 0
- 5 FCB 5 WOB 1
- 6 FCB 4 WOB 0
- 7 FCB 5 WOB 0
- 8 FCB 7 WOB 0
- 9 FCB 2 WOB 2
- 10 FCB 0 WOB 1
The goals
Bayern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | Kilian Fischer (Bayern, own goal) | 1–0 | +21% Bayern |
| 2. 13' | Dzenan Pejcinovic (Wolfsburg) | 1–1 | +22% Wolfsburg |
| 3. 30' | Luis Diaz (Bayern) | 2–1 | +24% Bayern |
| 4. 50' | Michael Olise (Bayern) | 3–1 | +13% Bayern |
| 5. 53' | Moritz Jenz (Bayern, own goal) | 4–1 | +3% Bayern |
| 6. 68' | Raphael Guerreiro (Bayern) | 5–1 | +0% Bayern |
| 7. 69' | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 6–1 | +0% Bayern |
| 8. 76' | Michael Olise (Bayern) | 7–1 | +0% Bayern |
| 9. 88' | Leon Goretzka (Bayern) | 8–1 | +0% Bayern |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Frankfurt 3–3 Dortmund Jan 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Heidenheim 2–2 Köln Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Freiburg 2–1 HSV Jan 10, 2026 · replay 60% for Freiburg
- Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leverkusen 1–4 Stuttgart Jan 10, 2026 · replay 47% for Stuttgart
- Gladbach 4–0 Augsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Gladbach
- Werder 0–2 Hoffenheim Jan 27, 2026 · replay 66% for Hoffenheim
- St. Pauli 1–1 Leipzig Jan 27, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws