Matchday 16 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Union Berlin and Mainz drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Union Berlin win 4 of 10, Mainz 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 1.3 here and Mainz 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Union Berlin | 2 |
 Mainz 05 | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −1 Union Berlin about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Union Berlin win 4, 3 end level, Mainz win 3.
- 1 FCU 2 M05 1
- 2 FCU 1 M05 0
- 3 FCU 3 M05 1
- 4 FCU 3 M05 0
- 5 FCU 2 M05 2
- 6 FCU 1 M05 1
- 7 FCU 1 M05 1
- 8 FCU 2 M05 4
- 9 FCU 1 M05 2
- 10 FCU 2 M05 3
The goals
Union Berlin’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 30' | Nadiem Amiri (Mainz) | 0–1 | +26% Mainz |
| 2. 69' | Benedict Hollerbach (Mainz) | 0–2 | +13% Mainz |
| 3. 77' | Jeong Wooyeong (Union Berlin) | 1–2 | +9% Union Berlin |
| 4. 86' | Marin Ljubicic (Union Berlin) | 2–2 | +47% Union Berlin |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 16, 2025-26
- Frankfurt 3–3 Dortmund Jan 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Heidenheim 2–2 Köln Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Freiburg 2–1 HSV Jan 10, 2026 · replay 60% for Freiburg
- Leverkusen 1–4 Stuttgart Jan 10, 2026 · replay 47% for Stuttgart
- Gladbach 4–0 Augsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Gladbach
- Bayern 8–1 Wolfsburg Jan 11, 2026 · replay 88% for Bayern
- Werder 0–2 Hoffenheim Jan 27, 2026 · replay 66% for Hoffenheim
- St. Pauli 1–1 Leipzig Jan 27, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws