luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 27 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 20, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Leipzig 5–0 Hoffenheim: lucky or expected?

Leipzig beat Hoffenheim 5–0, but the goals call it even: Leipzig win 4 of 10, Hoffenheim 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 1.9 here and Hoffenheim 1.7.

Full time

Goals
RB Leipzig 5
TSG Hoffenheim 0

March 20, 2026

Luck index +46 Leipzig lucky · −46 Hoffenheim

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Leipzig win 4, 2 end level, Hoffenheim win 4.

  1. 1 RBL 3 TSG 2
  2. 2 RBL 4 TSG 3
  3. 3 RBL 4 TSG 2
  4. 4 RBL 4 TSG 0
  5. 5 RBL 0 TSG 0
  6. 6 RBL 1 TSG 1
  7. 7 RBL 0 TSG 3
  8. 8 RBL 1 TSG 3
  9. 9 RBL 1 TSG 2
  10. 10 RBL 1 TSG 2

The goals

Leipzig’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Leipzig was ahead in it, below while Hoffenheim was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 17' Brajan Gruda (Leipzig) 1–0 +22% Leipzig
2. 21' Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) 2–0 +13% Leipzig
3. 30' Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig) 3–0 +5% Leipzig
4. 44' Brajan Gruda (Leipzig) 4–0 +1% Leipzig
5. 78' Benjamin Henrichs (Leipzig) 5–0 +0% Leipzig

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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