Matchday 27 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bayern 4–0 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Union Berlin 4–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bayern were expected to score 3.4 here and Union Berlin 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 4 |
 Union Berlin | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +13 Bayern about even · −13 Union Berlin
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bayern win 8, 1 ends level, Union Berlin win 1.
- 1 FCB 1 FCU 0
- 2 FCB 2 FCU 0
- 3 FCB 3 FCU 1
- 4 FCB 4 FCU 1
- 5 FCB 3 FCU 0
- 6 FCB 5 FCU 1
- 7 FCB 5 FCU 0
- 8 FCB 7 FCU 1
- 9 FCB 1 FCU 1
- 10 FCB 2 FCU 3
The goals
Bayern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 43' | Michael Olise (Bayern) | 1–0 | +27% Bayern |
| 2. 45+1' | Serge Gnabry (Bayern) | 2–0 | +13% Bayern |
| 3. 49' | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 3–0 | +4% Bayern |
| 4. 67' | Serge Gnabry (Bayern) | 4–0 | +0% Bayern |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2025-26
- Leipzig 5–0 Hoffenheim Mar 20, 2026 · replay 54% for Leipzig
- Köln 3–3 Gladbach Mar 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Heidenheim 3–3 Leverkusen Mar 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Werder Mar 21, 2026 · replay 43% for Werder
- Dortmund 3–2 HSV Mar 21, 2026 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Mainz 2–1 Frankfurt Mar 22, 2026 · replay 52% for Mainz
- St. Pauli 1–2 Freiburg Mar 22, 2026 · replay 58% for Freiburg
- Augsburg 2–5 Stuttgart Mar 22, 2026 · replay 62% for Stuttgart