luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 27 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 22, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Augsburg 2–5 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?

Stuttgart beat Augsburg 5–2, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Augsburg, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Augsburg were expected to score 1.4 here and Stuttgart 2.0.

Full time

Goals
FC Augsburg 2
VfB Stuttgart 5

March 22, 2026

Luck index +38 Stuttgart lucky · −38 Augsburg

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Augsburg win 3, 2 end level, Stuttgart win 5.

  1. 1 FCA 3 VFB 2
  2. 2 FCA 3 VFB 2
  3. 3 FCA 3 VFB 1
  4. 4 FCA 1 VFB 1
  5. 5 FCA 1 VFB 1
  6. 6 FCA 1 VFB 4
  7. 7 FCA 0 VFB 2
  8. 8 FCA 1 VFB 3
  9. 9 FCA 1 VFB 2
  10. 10 FCA 1 VFB 2

The goals

Augsburg’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Augsburg was ahead in it, below while Stuttgart was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 12' Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) 0–1 +23% Stuttgart
2. 29' Tiago Tomás (Stuttgart) 0–2 +18% Stuttgart
3. 31' Nikolas Nartey (Stuttgart) 0–3 +8% Stuttgart
4. 57' Fabian Rieder (Augsburg) 1–3 +4% Augsburg
5. 58' Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) 1–4 +4% Stuttgart
6. 71' Anton Kade (Augsburg) 2–4 +2% Augsburg
7. 83' Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart) 2–5 +0% Stuttgart

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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