Matchday 27 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 22, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
St. Pauli 1–2 Freiburg: lucky or expected?
Freiburg beat St. Pauli 2–1, and the goals lean Freiburg’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for St. Pauli, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, St. Pauli were expected to score 1.1 here and Freiburg 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 FC St. Pauli | 1 |
 SC Freiburg | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +42 Freiburg lucky · −42 St. Pauli
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. St. Pauli win 3, 3 end level, Freiburg win 4.
- 1 STP 1 SCF 0
- 2 STP 1 SCF 0
- 3 STP 4 SCF 2
- 4 STP 2 SCF 2
- 5 STP 2 SCF 2
- 6 STP 1 SCF 1
- 7 STP 0 SCF 3
- 8 STP 0 SCF 2
- 9 STP 1 SCF 2
- 10 STP 0 SCF 1
The goals
St. Pauli’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | Danel Sinani (St. Pauli) | 1–0 | +23% St. Pauli |
| 2. 65' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 1–1 | +34% Freiburg |
| 3. 78' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 1–2 | +42% Freiburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2025-26
- Leipzig 5–0 Hoffenheim Mar 20, 2026 · replay 54% for Leipzig
- Köln 3–3 Gladbach Mar 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bayern 4–0 Union Berlin Mar 21, 2026 · replay 87% for Bayern
- Heidenheim 3–3 Leverkusen Mar 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Werder Mar 21, 2026 · replay 43% for Werder
- Dortmund 3–2 HSV Mar 21, 2026 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Mainz 2–1 Frankfurt Mar 22, 2026 · replay 52% for Mainz
- Augsburg 2–5 Stuttgart Mar 22, 2026 · replay 62% for Stuttgart