Matchday 29 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Augsburg 2–2 Hoffenheim: lucky or expected?
Augsburg and Hoffenheim drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Augsburg win 3 of 10, Hoffenheim 5, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Augsburg were expected to score 1.4 here and Hoffenheim 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 FC Augsburg | 2 |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +10 Augsburg about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Augsburg win 3, 2 end level, Hoffenheim win 5.
- 1 FCA 2 TSG 1
- 2 FCA 3 TSG 2
- 3 FCA 2 TSG 0
- 4 FCA 0 TSG 0
- 5 FCA 1 TSG 1
- 6 FCA 0 TSG 4
- 7 FCA 0 TSG 2
- 8 FCA 1 TSG 3
- 9 FCA 1 TSG 2
- 10 FCA 1 TSG 2
The goals
Augsburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 11' | Alexis Claude Maurice (Augsburg) | 1–0 | +21% Augsburg |
| 2. 14' | Michael Gregoritsch (Augsburg) | 2–0 | +13% Augsburg |
| 3. 35' | Robin Hranac (Hoffenheim) | 2–1 | +14% Hoffenheim |
| 4. 42' | Bazoumana Toure (Hoffenheim) | 2–2 | +27% Hoffenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Heidenheim 3–1 Union Berlin Apr 11, 2026 · replay 48% for Heidenheim
- Dortmund 0–1 Leverkusen Apr 11, 2026 · replay 35% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 1–2 Frankfurt Apr 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Frankfurt
- Leipzig 1–0 Gladbach Apr 11, 2026 · replay 71% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Bayern
- Köln 3–1 Werder Apr 12, 2026 · replay 61% for Köln
- Stuttgart 4–0 HSV Apr 12, 2026 · replay 73% for Stuttgart
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg Apr 12, 2026 · replay 45% for Freiburg