Matchday 29 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Stuttgart 4–0 HSV: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart beat HSV 4–0, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for HSV, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 2.1 here and HSV 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfB Stuttgart | 4 |
 Hamburger SV | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +27 Stuttgart lucky · −27 HSV
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Stuttgart win 6, 2 end level, HSV win 2.
- 1 VFB 1 HSV 0
- 2 VFB 1 HSV 0
- 3 VFB 3 HSV 1
- 4 VFB 4 HSV 2
- 5 VFB 3 HSV 0
- 6 VFB 6 HSV 2
- 7 VFB 2 HSV 2
- 8 VFB 1 HSV 1
- 9 VFB 2 HSV 4
- 10 VFB 1 HSV 2
The goals
Stuttgart’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 21' | Angelo Stiller (Stuttgart) | 1–0 | +23% Stuttgart |
| 2. 32' | Chris Fuehrich (Stuttgart) | 2–0 | +14% Stuttgart |
| 3. 56' | Maximilian Mittelstaedt (Stuttgart) | 3–0 | +3% Stuttgart |
| 4. 86' | Bilal El Khannouss (Stuttgart) | 4–0 | +0% Stuttgart |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Augsburg 2–2 Hoffenheim Apr 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Heidenheim 3–1 Union Berlin Apr 11, 2026 · replay 48% for Heidenheim
- Dortmund 0–1 Leverkusen Apr 11, 2026 · replay 35% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 1–2 Frankfurt Apr 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Frankfurt
- Leipzig 1–0 Gladbach Apr 11, 2026 · replay 71% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Bayern
- Köln 3–1 Werder Apr 12, 2026 · replay 61% for Köln
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg Apr 12, 2026 · replay 45% for Freiburg