Matchday 29 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 11, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Heidenheim 3–1 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?
Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 3–1, but the goals call it even: Heidenheim win 4 of 10, Union Berlin 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Heidenheim were expected to score 1.5 here and Union Berlin 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Heidenheim | 3 |
 Union Berlin | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +52 Heidenheim lucky · −52 Union Berlin
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Heidenheim win 4, 3 end level, Union Berlin win 3.
- 1 FCH 2 FCU 1
- 2 FCH 2 FCU 1
- 3 FCH 3 FCU 1
- 4 FCH 4 FCU 1
- 5 FCH 2 FCU 2
- 6 FCH 2 FCU 2
- 7 FCH 0 FCU 0
- 8 FCH 0 FCU 3
- 9 FCH 2 FCU 3
- 10 FCH 2 FCU 3
The goals
Heidenheim’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Mathias Honsak (Heidenheim) | 1–0 | +21% Heidenheim |
| 2. 36' | Mathias Honsak (Heidenheim) | 2–0 | +13% Heidenheim |
| 3. 75' | Leopold Querfeld (Union Berlin) | 2–1 | +8% Union Berlin |
| 4. 79' | Budu Zivzivadze (Heidenheim) | 3–1 | +7% Heidenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Heidenheim win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2025-26 · 
Heidenheim · 
Union Berlin
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Augsburg 2–2 Hoffenheim Apr 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
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- Wolfsburg 1–2 Frankfurt Apr 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Frankfurt
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- St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Bayern
- Köln 3–1 Werder Apr 12, 2026 · replay 61% for Köln
- Stuttgart 4–0 HSV Apr 12, 2026 · replay 73% for Stuttgart
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg Apr 12, 2026 · replay 45% for Freiburg