Matchday 29 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Köln 3–1 Werder: lucky or expected?
Köln beat Werder 3–1, and the goals lean Köln’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Werder, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Köln were expected to score 1.7 here and Werder 1.2. An own goal helped Köln.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Köln | 3 |
 Werder Bremen | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +39 Köln lucky · −39 Werder
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Köln win 5, 3 end level, Werder win 2.
- 1 KOE 2 SVW 1
- 2 KOE 1 SVW 0
- 3 KOE 3 SVW 1
- 4 KOE 2 SVW 0
- 5 KOE 3 SVW 0
- 6 KOE 0 SVW 0
- 7 KOE 1 SVW 1
- 8 KOE 1 SVW 1
- 9 KOE 1 SVW 3
- 10 KOE 1 SVW 2
The goals
Köln’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Saïd El Mala (Köln, penalty) | 1–0 | +21% Köln |
| 2. 65' | Ragnar Ache (Köln) | 2–0 | +11% Köln |
| 3. 75' | Romano Schmid (Werder, penalty) | 2–1 | +8% Werder |
| 90+7' | Mio Backhaus (Köln, own goal) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Köln win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Augsburg 2–2 Hoffenheim Apr 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Heidenheim 3–1 Union Berlin Apr 11, 2026 · replay 48% for Heidenheim
- Dortmund 0–1 Leverkusen Apr 11, 2026 · replay 35% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 1–2 Frankfurt Apr 11, 2026 · replay 55% for Frankfurt
- Leipzig 1–0 Gladbach Apr 11, 2026 · replay 71% for Leipzig
- St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern Apr 11, 2026 · replay 87% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 4–0 HSV Apr 12, 2026 · replay 73% for Stuttgart
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg Apr 12, 2026 · replay 45% for Freiburg