Matchday 31 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Union Berlin 3–1, and the goals lean Leipzig’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Union Berlin, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 2.1 here and Union Berlin 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 3 |
 Union Berlin | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +29 Leipzig lucky · −29 Union Berlin
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 6, 2 end level, Union Berlin win 2.
- 1 RBL 3 FCU 2
- 2 RBL 1 FCU 0
- 3 RBL 2 FCU 0
- 4 RBL 2 FCU 0
- 5 RBL 3 FCU 0
- 6 RBL 4 FCU 0
- 7 RBL 0 FCU 0
- 8 RBL 1 FCU 1
- 9 RBL 0 FCU 2
- 10 RBL 2 FCU 3
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Max Finkgräfe (Leipzig) | 1–0 | +23% Leipzig |
| 2. 25' | Rômulo (Leipzig) | 2–0 | +14% Leipzig |
| 3. 63' | Ridle Baku (Leipzig) | 3–0 | +2% Leipzig |
| 4. 78' | Danilho Doekhi (Union Berlin) | 3–1 | +1% Union Berlin |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
- Augsburg 1–1 Frankfurt Apr 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Heidenheim 2–0 St. Pauli Apr 25, 2026 · replay 56% for Heidenheim
- Köln 1–2 Leverkusen Apr 25, 2026 · replay 61% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 0–0 Gladbach Apr 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Mainz 3–4 Bayern Apr 25, 2026 · replay 79% for Bayern
- HSV 1–2 Hoffenheim Apr 25, 2026 · replay 61% for Hoffenheim
- Stuttgart 1–1 Werder Apr 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Dortmund 4–0 Freiburg Apr 26, 2026 · replay 76% for Dortmund