Matchday 31 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 25, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
HSV 1–2 Hoffenheim: lucky or expected?
Hoffenheim beat HSV 2–1, and the goals lean Hoffenheim’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for HSV, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, HSV were expected to score 1.2 here and Hoffenheim 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Hamburger SV | 1 |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +39 Hoffenheim lucky · −39 HSV
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. HSV win 3, 3 end level, Hoffenheim win 4.
- 1 HSV 2 TSG 1
- 2 HSV 2 TSG 1
- 3 HSV 3 TSG 1
- 4 HSV 2 TSG 2
- 5 HSV 3 TSG 3
- 6 HSV 1 TSG 1
- 7 HSV 1 TSG 4
- 8 HSV 0 TSG 2
- 9 HSV 0 TSG 1
- 10 HSV 0 TSG 1
The goals
HSV’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 18' | Fisnik Asllani (Hoffenheim) | 0–1 | +24% Hoffenheim |
| 2. 34' | Robert Glatzel (HSV, penalty) | 1–1 | +27% HSV |
| 3. 45' | Tim Lemperle (Hoffenheim) | 1–2 | +30% Hoffenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
- Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin Apr 24, 2026 · replay 71% for Leipzig
- Augsburg 1–1 Frankfurt Apr 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Heidenheim 2–0 St. Pauli Apr 25, 2026 · replay 56% for Heidenheim
- Köln 1–2 Leverkusen Apr 25, 2026 · replay 61% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 0–0 Gladbach Apr 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Mainz 3–4 Bayern Apr 25, 2026 · replay 79% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 1–1 Werder Apr 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Dortmund 4–0 Freiburg Apr 26, 2026 · replay 76% for Dortmund