luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 31 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Mainz 3–4 Bayern: lucky or expected?

Bayern beat Mainz 4–3, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.3 here and Bayern 3.0.

Full time

Goals
Mainz 05 3
Bayern Munich 4

April 25, 2026

Luck index +21 Bayern about even · −21 Mainz

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Mainz win 1, 2 end level, Bayern win 7.

  1. 1 M05 2 FCB 1
  2. 2 M05 2 FCB 2
  3. 3 M05 2 FCB 2
  4. 4 M05 0 FCB 5
  5. 5 M05 0 FCB 4
  6. 6 M05 3 FCB 6
  7. 7 M05 2 FCB 4
  8. 8 M05 0 FCB 2
  9. 9 M05 0 FCB 1
  10. 10 M05 1 FCB 2

The goals

Mainz’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Mainz was ahead in it, below while Bayern was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 15' Dominik Kohr (Mainz) 1–0 +22% Mainz
2. 29' Paul Nebel (Mainz) 2–0 +13% Mainz
3. 45+2' Sheraldo Becker (Mainz) 3–0 +4% Mainz
4. 53' Nicolas Jackson (Bayern) 3–1 +3% Bayern
5. 73' Michael Olise (Bayern) 3–2 +9% Bayern
6. 80' Jamal Musiala (Bayern) 3–3 +42% Bayern
7. 83' Harry Kane (Bayern) 3–4 +45% Bayern

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 31 matches, 2025-26 · Mainz · Bayern

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