Matchday 31 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 26, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Stuttgart 1–1 Werder: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart and Werder drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Stuttgart win 7 of 10, Werder 1, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 2.3 here and Werder 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfB Stuttgart | 1 |
 Werder Bremen | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −28 Stuttgart unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Stuttgart win 7, 2 end level, Werder win 1.
- 1 VFB 2 SVW 1
- 2 VFB 2 SVW 1
- 3 VFB 2 SVW 0
- 4 VFB 3 SVW 1
- 5 VFB 3 SVW 0
- 6 VFB 5 SVW 1
- 7 VFB 5 SVW 0
- 8 VFB 1 SVW 1
- 9 VFB 1 SVW 1
- 10 VFB 1 SVW 2
The goals
Stuttgart’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 18' | Jens Stage (Werder) | 0–1 | +24% Werder |
| 2. 61' | Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart) | 1–1 | +34% Stuttgart |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
- Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin Apr 24, 2026 · replay 71% for Leipzig
- Augsburg 1–1 Frankfurt Apr 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Heidenheim 2–0 St. Pauli Apr 25, 2026 · replay 56% for Heidenheim
- Köln 1–2 Leverkusen Apr 25, 2026 · replay 61% for Leverkusen
- Wolfsburg 0–0 Gladbach Apr 25, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Mainz 3–4 Bayern Apr 25, 2026 · replay 79% for Bayern
- HSV 1–2 Hoffenheim Apr 25, 2026 · replay 61% for Hoffenheim
- Dortmund 4–0 Freiburg Apr 26, 2026 · replay 76% for Dortmund