Matchday 1 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · August 28, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bayern 5–1 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Stuttgart 5–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bayern were expected to score 3.1 here and Stuttgart 1.1. An own goal helped Bayern.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 5 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +17 Bayern about even · −17 Stuttgart
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bayern win 8, 1 ends level, Stuttgart win 1.
- 1 FCB 3 VFB 2
- 2 FCB 2 VFB 1
- 3 FCB 3 VFB 1
- 4 FCB 2 VFB 0
- 5 FCB 3 VFB 0
- 6 FCB 4 VFB 1
- 7 FCB 5 VFB 1
- 8 FCB 8 VFB 3
- 9 FCB 1 VFB 1
- 10 FCB 0 VFB 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Bayern 67% to win, 18% for a draw, Stuttgart 15%. Bayern won: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.6 goals from ours; 12% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Bayern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 21' | D. Upamecano (Bayern) | 1–0 | +20% Bayern |
| 2. 52' | J. Vagnoman (Stuttgart) | 1–1 | +27% Stuttgart |
| 3. 55' | M. Olise (Bayern) | 2–1 | +28% Bayern |
| 4. 57' | J. Vagnoman (Bayern, own goal) | 3–1 | +10% Bayern |
| 5. 82' | Aleksandar Pavlovic (Bayern) | 4–1 | +0% Bayern |
| 90+2' | Luis Díaz (Bayern) | 5–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2026-27
- Leipzig 3–0 Gladbach Aug 29, 2026 · replay 89% for Leipzig
- Mainz 0–0 Paderborn Aug 29, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Union Berlin 3–3 Frankfurt Aug 29, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Elversberg 3–2 Leverkusen Aug 29, 2026 · replay 59% for Elversberg
- Köln 3–2 Hoffenheim Aug 29, 2026 · replay 54% for Köln
- Dortmund 2–0 HSV Aug 29, 2026 · replay 91% for Dortmund
- Freiburg 4–1 Werder Aug 30, 2026 · replay 68% for Freiburg
- Augsburg 3–0 Schalke Aug 30, 2026 · replay 76% for Augsburg