Matchday 1 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · August 29, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Union Berlin 3–3 Frankfurt: lucky or expected?
Union Berlin and Frankfurt drew 3–3. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Union Berlin win 4 of 10, Frankfurt 4, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 1.9 here and Frankfurt 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Union Berlin | 3 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index −1 Union Berlin about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Union Berlin win 4, 2 end level, Frankfurt win 4.
- 1 FCU 1 SGE 0
- 2 FCU 1 SGE 0
- 3 FCU 3 SGE 1
- 4 FCU 3 SGE 0
- 5 FCU 2 SGE 2
- 6 FCU 1 SGE 1
- 7 FCU 0 SGE 3
- 8 FCU 1 SGE 3
- 9 FCU 1 SGE 2
- 10 FCU 0 SGE 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Frankfurt 40% to win, 26% for a draw, Union Berlin 34%. It ended level; we gave a draw 26%. The final margin was 0.1 goals from ours; 74% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Union Berlin’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Emmanuel Latte Lath (Union Berlin) | 1–0 | +18% Union Berlin |
| 2. 10' | Younes Ebnoutalib (Frankfurt) | 1–1 | +18% Frankfurt |
| 3. 11' | Younes Ebnoutalib (Frankfurt) | 1–2 | +23% Frankfurt |
| 4. 67' | Younes Ebnoutalib (Frankfurt) | 1–3 | +16% Frankfurt |
| 5. 79' | L. Querfeld (Union Berlin) | 2–3 | +10% Union Berlin |
| 90+2' | T. Skarke (Union Berlin) | 3–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 1, 2026-27
- Bayern 5–1 Stuttgart Aug 28, 2026 · replay 83% for Bayern
- Leipzig 3–0 Gladbach Aug 29, 2026 · replay 89% for Leipzig
- Mainz 0–0 Paderborn Aug 29, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Elversberg 3–2 Leverkusen Aug 29, 2026 · replay 59% for Elversberg
- Köln 3–2 Hoffenheim Aug 29, 2026 · replay 54% for Köln
- Dortmund 2–0 HSV Aug 29, 2026 · replay 91% for Dortmund
- Freiburg 4–1 Werder Aug 30, 2026 · replay 68% for Freiburg
- Augsburg 3–0 Schalke Aug 30, 2026 · replay 76% for Augsburg