Matchday 1 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · August 29, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elversberg 3–2 Leverkusen: lucky or expected?
Elversberg beat Leverkusen 3–2, and the goals lean Elversberg’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Leverkusen, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elversberg were expected to score 2.3 here and Leverkusen 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SV Elversberg | 3 |
 Bayer Leverkusen | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +41 Elversberg lucky · −41 Leverkusen
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elversberg win 5, 2 end level, Leverkusen win 3.
- 1 SVE 2 B04 1
- 2 SVE 2 B04 1
- 3 SVE 3 B04 1
- 4 SVE 4 B04 1
- 5 SVE 4 B04 0
- 6 SVE 1 B04 1
- 7 SVE 0 B04 0
- 8 SVE 0 B04 3
- 9 SVE 0 B04 1
- 10 SVE 1 B04 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Leverkusen 56% to win, 24% for a draw, Elversberg 21%. Elversberg won, a result we gave 21%. The final margin was 1.8 goals from ours; 23% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Elversberg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 8' | L. Petkov (Elversberg) | 1–0 | +18% Elversberg |
| 2. 9' | Cole Campbell (Elversberg) | 2–0 | +11% Elversberg |
| 3. 46' | David Mokwa Ntusu (Elversberg) | 3–0 | +3% Elversberg |
| 4. 77' | P. Schick (Leverkusen) | 3–1 | +1% Leverkusen |
| 90+1' | C. Kofane (Leverkusen) | 3–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Elversberg win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2026-27
- Bayern 5–1 Stuttgart Aug 28, 2026 · replay 83% for Bayern
- Leipzig 3–0 Gladbach Aug 29, 2026 · replay 89% for Leipzig
- Mainz 0–0 Paderborn Aug 29, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Union Berlin 3–3 Frankfurt Aug 29, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Köln 3–2 Hoffenheim Aug 29, 2026 · replay 54% for Köln
- Dortmund 2–0 HSV Aug 29, 2026 · replay 91% for Dortmund
- Freiburg 4–1 Werder Aug 30, 2026 · replay 68% for Freiburg
- Augsburg 3–0 Schalke Aug 30, 2026 · replay 76% for Augsburg