luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 1 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · August 29, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Mainz 0–0 Paderborn: lucky or expected?

Mainz and Paderborn drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Mainz win 5 of 10, Paderborn 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.7 here and Paderborn 1.1.

Full time

Goals
Mainz 05 0
SC Paderborn 0

August 29, 2026

Our prediction before kickoff: Mainz win 56%

Luck index −13 Mainz about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Mainz win 5, 3 end level, Paderborn win 2.

  1. 1 M05 1 SCP 0
  2. 2 M05 2 SCP 1
  3. 3 M05 3 SCP 1
  4. 4 M05 4 SCP 2
  5. 5 M05 3 SCP 0
  6. 6 M05 1 SCP 1
  7. 7 M05 1 SCP 1
  8. 8 M05 1 SCP 1
  9. 9 M05 0 SCP 2
  10. 10 M05 0 SCP 1

Our prediction before kickoff

We had Mainz 56% to win, 25% for a draw, Paderborn 19%. It ended level; we gave a draw 25%. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 51% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

The goals

No goals: Mainz and Paderborn drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (63% for Mainz, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

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