luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 7 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 24, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?

Augsburg and Union Berlin drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Augsburg win 7 of 10, Union Berlin 1, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Augsburg were expected to score 2.8 here and Union Berlin 1.3.

Full time

Goals
FC Augsburg 1
Union Berlin 1

October 24, 2026

Our prediction before kickoff: Augsburg win 56%

Luck index −27 Augsburg unlucky for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Augsburg win 7, 2 end level, Union Berlin win 1.

  1. 1 FCA 2 FCU 1
  2. 2 FCA 1 FCU 0
  3. 3 FCA 3 FCU 1
  4. 4 FCA 2 FCU 0
  5. 5 FCA 3 FCU 0
  6. 6 FCA 4 FCU 0
  7. 7 FCA 5 FCU 0
  8. 8 FCA 3 FCU 3
  9. 9 FCA 3 FCU 3
  10. 10 FCA 1 FCU 2

Our prediction before kickoff

We had Augsburg 56% to win, 25% for a draw, Union Berlin 20%. It ended level; we gave a draw 25%. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 51% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Sat, Oct 24, 16:11 CEST and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done

The goals

Augsburg’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Augsburg was ahead in it, below while Union Berlin was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 71' Han-Noah Massengo (Augsburg) 1–0 +35% Augsburg
2. 74' J. Haberer (Union Berlin) 1–1 +36% Union Berlin

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

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