luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 7 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Hoffenheim 3–0 Leverkusen: lucky or expected?

Hoffenheim beat Leverkusen 3–0, but the goals call it even: Hoffenheim win 4 of 10, Leverkusen 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 2.2 here and Leverkusen 2.2.

Full time

Goals
TSG Hoffenheim 3
Bayer Leverkusen 0

October 25, 2026

Our prediction before kickoff: Leverkusen win 46%

Luck index +50 Hoffenheim lucky · −50 Leverkusen

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 4, 2 end level, Leverkusen win 4.

  1. 1 TSG 3 B04 2
  2. 2 TSG 3 B04 2
  3. 3 TSG 5 B04 3
  4. 4 TSG 3 B04 0
  5. 5 TSG 1 B04 1
  6. 6 TSG 2 B04 2
  7. 7 TSG 4 B04 7
  8. 8 TSG 1 B04 3
  9. 9 TSG 1 B04 2
  10. 10 TSG 2 B04 3

Our prediction before kickoff

We had Leverkusen 46% to win, 24% for a draw, Hoffenheim 30%. Hoffenheim won, a result we gave 30%. The final margin was 3.4 goals from ours; 6% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Sun, Oct 25, 12:58 CET and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done

The goals

Hoffenheim’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Hoffenheim was ahead in it, below while Leverkusen was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 78' A. Kramaric (Hoffenheim, penalty) 1–0 +39% Hoffenheim
2. 90' A. Prass (Hoffenheim) 2–0 +0% Hoffenheim
90+5' M. Moerstedt (Hoffenheim) 3–0

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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