Matchday 7 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 25, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Freiburg 1–3 Bayern: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Freiburg 3–1, but the goals call it even: Bayern win 5 of 10, Freiburg 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.9 here and Bayern 2.2. An own goal helped Freiburg.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 1 |
 Bayern Munich | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +46 Bayern lucky · −46 Freiburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Freiburg win 3, 2 end level, Bayern win 5.
- 1 SCF 2 FCB 1
- 2 SCF 3 FCB 1
- 3 SCF 3 FCB 0
- 4 SCF 2 FCB 2
- 5 SCF 1 FCB 1
- 6 SCF 1 FCB 5
- 7 SCF 0 FCB 3
- 8 SCF 1 FCB 3
- 9 SCF 0 FCB 1
- 10 SCF 2 FCB 3
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Bayern 62% to win, 20% for a draw, Freiburg 18%. Bayern won: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 60% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Sun, Oct 25, 15:40 CET and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Freiburg’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 16' | D. Upamecano (Bayern) | 0–1 | +24% Bayern |
| 2. 42' | S. Gnabry (Bayern) | 0–2 | +20% Bayern |
| 3. 82' | T. Bischof (Freiburg, own goal) | 1–2 | +8% Freiburg |
| 90+5' | M. Olise (Bayern) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2026-27
- Stuttgart 2–3 Gladbach Oct 23, 2026 · replay 19% for Gladbach
- Mainz 2–3 Werder Oct 24, 2026 · replay 53% for Werder
- Köln 0–0 Schalke Oct 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 49% draws
- Leipzig 4–0 Elversberg Oct 24, 2026 · replay 73% for Leipzig
- Paderborn 1–0 HSV Oct 24, 2026 · replay 71% for Paderborn
- Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin Oct 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Dortmund 1–0 Frankfurt Oct 24, 2026 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Hoffenheim 3–0 Leverkusen Oct 25, 2026 · replay 50% for Hoffenheim