Matchday 7 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 2–3 Werder: lucky or expected?
Werder beat Mainz 3–2, but the goals call it even: Werder win 4 of 10, Mainz 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 2.0 here and Werder 2.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 2 |
 Werder Bremen | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +47 Werder lucky · −47 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 4, 2 end level, Werder win 4.
- 1 M05 2 SVW 1
- 2 M05 3 SVW 2
- 3 M05 4 SVW 2
- 4 M05 4 SVW 1
- 5 M05 1 SVW 1
- 6 M05 3 SVW 3
- 7 M05 0 SVW 3
- 8 M05 2 SVW 4
- 9 M05 2 SVW 3
- 10 M05 1 SVW 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Mainz 50% to win, 26% for a draw, Werder 24%. Werder won, a result we gave 24%. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 21% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Sat, Oct 24, 13:31 CEST and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | N. Füllkrug (Werder, penalty) | 0–1 | +22% Werder |
| 2. 24' | N. Füllkrug (Werder, penalty) | 0–2 | +20% Werder |
| 3. 33' | A. Caci (Mainz) | 1–2 | +20% Mainz |
| 4. 61' | L. Reis (Werder) | 1–3 | +17% Werder |
| 5. 64' | Lee Jae-sung (Mainz) | 2–3 | +16% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Werder win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2026-27
- Stuttgart 2–3 Gladbach Oct 23, 2026 · replay 19% for Gladbach
- Köln 0–0 Schalke Oct 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 49% draws
- Leipzig 4–0 Elversberg Oct 24, 2026 · replay 73% for Leipzig
- Paderborn 1–0 HSV Oct 24, 2026 · replay 71% for Paderborn
- Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin Oct 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Dortmund 1–0 Frankfurt Oct 24, 2026 · replay 81% for Dortmund
- Hoffenheim 3–0 Leverkusen Oct 25, 2026 · replay 50% for Hoffenheim
- Freiburg 1–3 Bayern Oct 25, 2026 · replay 54% for Bayern