Quarter-finals · Euro 2024 · July 5, 2024 · pens

Portugal 0–0 France: who deserved to win?

France went through on penalties after 0–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: France go through 5 times in 10. Portugal made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1.

Full time · won on penalties

Team	Goals	xG
Portugal	0	1.41
France	0	1.07

July 5, 2024 · Volksparkstadion · Referee: Michael Oliver

Replay with same day's form: who goes through

Luck index +54 France lucky · −54 Portugal

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Portugal win 4, 4 end level, France win 2.

1 POR 1 FRA 0
2 POR 1 FRA 0
3 POR 2 FRA 1
4 POR 2 FRA 0
5 POR 0 FRA 0
6 POR 0 FRA 0
7 POR 0 FRA 0
8 POR 0 FRA 0
9 POR 0 FRA 2
10 POR 0 FRA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Portugal win 35%, 36% end level, France win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Actual: Draw 4321Draw1234 ← Portugal win by France win by →

Show as a table

After 90 minutes in the replays	Share of replays
Portugal by 3+	3.0%
Portugal by 2	9.0%
Portugal by 1	23.2%
Draw	36.2%
France by 1	20.3%
France by 2	6.7%
France by 3+	1.6%

Where the luck was

Finishing	Shots	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
Portugal	15	0	1.41	−1.41
France	20	0	1.07	−1.07

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Portugal’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Portugal 50% France 1st half2nd halfET 134568

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Portugal was ahead in it, below while France was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for
1	62'	Vitor Machado Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance	+10% FRA
2	62'	Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance	+5% FRA
3	69'	Eduardo Camavinga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance	+9% POR
4	ET 92'	Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance	+10% FRA
5	ET 96'	Marcus Thuram didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance	+7% POR
6	ET 101'	Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance	+5% FRA
7	ET 119'	Nuno Mendes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance	+7% FRA
8	Pens 120'	France won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips	+50% FRA

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 0–0. France go through in 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2024 · Portugal · France