luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Quarter-finals · Euro 2024 · July 6, 2024 · pens

England 1–1 Switzerland: who deserved to win?

England went through on penalties after 1–1, but the replays send Switzerland through 7 times in 10. Switzerland made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.5.

Full time · won on penalties

GoalsxG
England 1 0.54
Switzerland 1 1.20

July 6, 2024 · Merkur Spiel-Arena · Referee: Daniele Orsato

Luck index +71 England very lucky · −71 Switzerland

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 2, 3 end level, Switzerland win 5.

  1. 1 ENG 1 SUI 0
  2. 2 ENG 1 SUI 0
  3. 3 ENG 0 SUI 0
  4. 4 ENG 0 SUI 0
  5. 5 ENG 0 SUI 0
  6. 6 ENG 1 SUI 4
  7. 7 ENG 1 SUI 3
  8. 8 ENG 0 SUI 1
  9. 9 ENG 0 SUI 1
  10. 10 ENG 0 SUI 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

England win 15%, 33% end level, Switzerland win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
England by 3+0.3%
England by 22.1%
England by 112.8%
Draw32.6%
Switzerland by 130.2%
Switzerland by 214.7%
Switzerland by 3+7.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
England1310.54+0.46
Switzerland1211.20−0.20

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
74'Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shot0.67
79'Bukayo Saka scored from a shot0.03

When it happened

England’s chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while England was ahead in it, below while Switzerland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 44' Kobbie Mainoo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +3% SUI
2 56' Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +4% ENG
3 74' Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shotFinishing · 67% chance +13% SUI
4 79' Bukayo Saka scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +42% ENG
5 ET 101' Jude Bellingham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% SUI
6 ET 101' Jude Bellingham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% SUI
7 ET 118' Silvan Widmer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +6% ENG
8 Pens 120' England won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +50% ENG

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. England go through in 29% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2024 · England · Switzerland

More from quarter-finals, 2024

Every match of quarter-finals, 2024