luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Quarter-finals · Euro 2024 · July 6, 2024

Netherlands 2–1 Turkey: who deserved to win?

Netherlands beat Turkey 2–1, but the replays send Turkey through 6 times in 10. Turkey made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Netherlands.

Full time

GoalsxG
Netherlands 2 0.72
Turkey 1 1.18

July 6, 2024 · Olympiastadion Berlin · Referee: Clément Turpin

Luck index +63 Netherlands very lucky · −63 Turkey

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Netherlands win 2, 3 end level, Turkey win 5.

  1. 1 NED 1 TUR 0
  2. 2 NED 1 TUR 0
  3. 3 NED 1 TUR 1
  4. 4 NED 0 TUR 0
  5. 5 NED 1 TUR 1
  6. 6 NED 0 TUR 3
  7. 7 NED 0 TUR 2
  8. 8 NED 1 TUR 2
  9. 9 NED 0 TUR 1
  10. 10 NED 2 TUR 3

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Netherlands win 23%, 31% end level, Turkey win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Netherlands by 3+1.4%
Netherlands by 25.1%
Netherlands by 116.8%
Draw30.6%
Turkey by 126.1%
Turkey by 213.3%
Turkey by 3+6.7%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Netherlands1110.72+0.28
Turkey1511.18−0.18

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
34'Samet Akaydin scored from a shot0.25
69'Stefan de Vrij scored from a shot0.06

When it happened

Netherlands’s chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Netherlands was ahead in it, below while Turkey was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 34' Samet Akaydin scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +21% TUR
2 69' Wout Weghorst didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +6% TUR
3 69' The game turned hereStefan de Vrij scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +36% NED
4 75' Own goal by nan, for NetherlandsOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +39% NED
5 84' Mehmet Zeki Çelik didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +11% NED
6 87' Cenk Tosun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% NED
7 89' Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +5% NED
8 91' Semih Kılıçsoy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +6% NED

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands go through in 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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