Quarter-finals · Euro 2024 · July 5, 2024 · AET

Spain 2–1 Germany: who deserved to win?

Spain beat Germany 2–1 after extra time, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Spain go through 4 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.5 expected goals to 1.6).

Full time · after extra time

Team	Goals	xG
Spain	2	1.53
Germany	1	1.63

July 5, 2024 · MHPArena · Referee: Anthony Taylor

Replay with same day's form: who goes through

Luck index +56 Spain lucky · −56 Germany

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Spain win 3, 3 end level, Germany win 4.

1 ESP 1 GER 0
2 ESP 1 GER 0
3 ESP 2 GER 0
4 ESP 2 GER 2
5 ESP 0 GER 0
6 ESP 1 GER 1
7 ESP 0 GER 3
8 ESP 0 GER 2
9 ESP 1 GER 2
10 ESP 0 GER 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Spain win 31%, 29% end level, Germany win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Actual: Draw 4321Draw1234 ← Spain win by Germany win by →

Show as a table

After 90 minutes in the replays	Share of replays
Spain by 3+	2.9%
Spain by 2	8.6%
Spain by 1	19.6%
Draw	28.7%
Germany by 1	23.2%
Germany by 2	11.5%
Germany by 3+	5.5%

Where the luck was

Finishing	Shots	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
Spain	19	2	1.53	+0.47
Germany	23	1	1.63	−0.63

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

Minute	Chance	xG
51'	Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shot	0.16
88'	Florian Wirtz scored from a shot	0.12
118'	Mikel Merino Zazón scored from a shot	0.20

When it happened

Spain’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Spain 50% Germany 1st half2nd halfET 12345678

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Spain was ahead in it, below while Germany was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for
1	34'	Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance	+4% ESP
2	46'	Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance	+5% GER
3	51'	Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance	+27% ESP
4	88'	Florian Wirtz scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance	+43% GER
5	93'	Thomas Müller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance	+12% ESP
6	ET 105'	Florian Wirtz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance	+4% ESP
7	ET 118'	Mikel Merino Zazón scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance	+39% ESP
8	ET 122'	Niclas Füllkrug didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance	+4% ESP

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Spain go through in 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2024 · Spain · Germany