Matchday 2 · La Liga 2025-26 · August 25, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Sevilla 1–2 Getafe: lucky or expected?
Getafe beat Sevilla 2–1, but the goals call it even: Getafe win 3 of 10, Sevilla 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Sevilla were expected to score 1.0 here and Getafe 0.9. An own goal helped Sevilla.
What the goals say
Luck index +55 Getafe lucky · −55 Sevilla
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 4, 3 end level, Getafe win 3.
- 1 SEV 2 GET 1
- 2 SEV 1 GET 0
- 3 SEV 1 GET 0
- 4 SEV 2 GET 0
- 5 SEV 0 GET 0
- 6 SEV 0 GET 0
- 7 SEV 2 GET 2
- 8 SEV 0 GET 2
- 9 SEV 0 GET 1
- 10 SEV 0 GET 1
The goals
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 15' | Adrián Liso (Getafe) | 0–1 | +26% Getafe |
| 2. 45' | Juan Iglesias (Sevilla, own goal) | 1–1 | +32% Sevilla |
| 3. 51' | Adrián Liso (Getafe) | 1–2 | +34% Getafe |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Getafe win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2025-26
- Betis 1–0 Alavés Aug 22, 2025 · replay 71% for Betis
- Mallorca 1–1 Celta Aug 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Atlético 1–1 Elche Aug 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Levante 2–3 Barcelona Aug 23, 2025 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Osasuna 1–0 Valencia Aug 24, 2025 · replay 59% for Osasuna
- Villarreal 5–0 Girona Aug 24, 2025 · replay 76% for Villarreal
- Real Sociedad 2–2 Espanyol Aug 24, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Oviedo 0–3 Real Madrid Aug 24, 2025 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Aug 25, 2025 · replay 52% for Athletic