Matchday 2 · La Liga 2025-26 · August 24, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 1–0 Valencia: lucky or expected?
Osasuna beat Valencia 1–0, and the goals lean Osasuna’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Valencia, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.4 here and Valencia 1.0.
What the goals say
Luck index +41 Osasuna lucky · −41 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 4, 3 end level, Valencia win 3.
- 1 OSA 1 VAL 0
- 2 OSA 3 VAL 2
- 3 OSA 2 VAL 0
- 4 OSA 3 VAL 0
- 5 OSA 2 VAL 2
- 6 OSA 1 VAL 1
- 7 OSA 1 VAL 1
- 8 OSA 0 VAL 2
- 9 OSA 1 VAL 2
- 10 OSA 0 VAL 1
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Ante Budimir (Osasuna) | 1–0 | +22% Osasuna |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Osasuna win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2025-26
- Betis 1–0 Alavés Aug 22, 2025 · replay 71% for Betis
- Mallorca 1–1 Celta Aug 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Atlético 1–1 Elche Aug 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Levante 2–3 Barcelona Aug 23, 2025 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 5–0 Girona Aug 24, 2025 · replay 76% for Villarreal
- Real Sociedad 2–2 Espanyol Aug 24, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Oviedo 0–3 Real Madrid Aug 24, 2025 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Aug 25, 2025 · replay 52% for Athletic
- Sevilla 1–2 Getafe Aug 25, 2025 · replay 45% for Getafe