Matchday 7 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 27, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 5–2 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Atlético beat Real Madrid 5–2, but the goals call it even: Atlético win 4 of 10, Real Madrid 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 1.5 here and Real Madrid 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 5 |
 Real Madrid | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +52 Atlético lucky · −52 Real Madrid
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 4, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 3.
- 1 ATM 3 RMA 2
- 2 ATM 1 RMA 0
- 3 ATM 3 RMA 1
- 4 ATM 5 RMA 2
- 5 ATM 1 RMA 1
- 6 ATM 1 RMA 1
- 7 ATM 1 RMA 1
- 8 ATM 1 RMA 4
- 9 ATM 1 RMA 3
- 10 ATM 0 RMA 1
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Robin Le Normand (Atlético) | 1–0 | +23% Atlético |
| 2. 25' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 1–1 | +24% Real Madrid |
| 3. 36' | Arda Guler (Real Madrid) | 1–2 | +30% Real Madrid |
| 4. 45+3' | Alexander Sorloth (Atlético) | 2–2 | +33% Atlético |
| 5. 51' | Julian Alvarez (Atlético, penalty) | 3–2 | +30% Atlético |
| 6. 63' | Julian Alvarez (Atlético) | 4–2 | +9% Atlético |
| 90+3' | Antoine Griezmann (Atlético) | 5–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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- Elche 2–1 Celta Sep 28, 2025 · replay 52% for Elche
- Barcelona 2–1 Real Sociedad Sep 28, 2025 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Betis 2–0 Osasuna Sep 28, 2025 · replay 69% for Betis
- Valencia 1–2 Oviedo Sep 30, 2025 · replay 24% for Oviedo