Matchday 7 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 27, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Villarreal 1–0 Athletic: lucky or expected?
Villarreal beat Athletic 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Villarreal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Villarreal were expected to score 2.2 here and Athletic 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 |
 Athletic Club | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +24 Villarreal about even · −24 Athletic
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 7, 2 end level, Athletic win 1.
- 1 VIL 1 ATH 0
- 2 VIL 1 ATH 0
- 3 VIL 2 ATH 1
- 4 VIL 2 ATH 0
- 5 VIL 3 ATH 1
- 6 VIL 3 ATH 0
- 7 VIL 5 ATH 1
- 8 VIL 1 ATH 1
- 9 VIL 2 ATH 2
- 10 VIL 2 ATH 3
The goals
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 77' | Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal) | 1–0 | +41% Villarreal |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Villarreal win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2025-26
- Girona 0–0 Espanyol Sep 26, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Levante Sep 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–2 Real Madrid Sep 27, 2025 · replay 48% for Atlético
- Mallorca 1–0 Alavés Sep 27, 2025 · replay 60% for Mallorca
- Rayo 0–1 Sevilla Sep 28, 2025 · replay 32% for Sevilla
- Elche 2–1 Celta Sep 28, 2025 · replay 52% for Elche
- Barcelona 2–1 Real Sociedad Sep 28, 2025 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Betis 2–0 Osasuna Sep 28, 2025 · replay 69% for Betis
- Valencia 1–2 Oviedo Sep 30, 2025 · replay 24% for Oviedo