Matchday 8 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 4, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 3–1, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Villarreal, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.1 here and Villarreal 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 |
 Villarreal | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +32 Real Madrid lucky · −32 Villarreal
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 6, 2 end level, Villarreal win 2.
- 1 RMA 2 VIL 1
- 2 RMA 2 VIL 1
- 3 RMA 3 VIL 1
- 4 RMA 3 VIL 1
- 5 RMA 3 VIL 0
- 6 RMA 4 VIL 0
- 7 RMA 2 VIL 2
- 8 RMA 3 VIL 3
- 9 RMA 1 VIL 3
- 10 RMA 0 VIL 1
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 47' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +29% Real Madrid |
| 2. 69' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid, penalty) | 2–0 | +8% Real Madrid |
| 3. 73' | Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) | 2–1 | +7% Villarreal |
| 4. 81' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 3–1 | +5% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2025-26
- Osasuna 2–1 Getafe Oct 3, 2025 · replay 61% for Osasuna
- Oviedo 0–2 Levante Oct 4, 2025 · replay 51% for Levante
- Girona 2–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2025 · replay 55% for Girona
- Athletic 2–1 Mallorca Oct 4, 2025 · replay 57% for Athletic
- Alavés 3–1 Elche Oct 5, 2025 · replay 58% for Alavés
- Sevilla 4–1 Barcelona Oct 5, 2025 · replay 26% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo Oct 5, 2025 · replay 41% for Rayo
- Espanyol 1–2 Betis Oct 5, 2025 · replay 53% for Betis
- Celta 1–1 Atlético Oct 5, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws