Matchday 8 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 5, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 1–1 Atlético: lucky or expected?
Celta and Atlético drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Celta win 4 of 10, Atlético 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.4 here and Atlético 1.3. An own goal helped Atlético.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −2 Celta about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 4, 3 end level, Atlético win 3.
- 1 CEL 1 ATM 0
- 2 CEL 2 ATM 1
- 3 CEL 2 ATM 0
- 4 CEL 3 ATM 0
- 5 CEL 1 ATM 1
- 6 CEL 2 ATM 2
- 7 CEL 1 ATM 1
- 8 CEL 0 ATM 3
- 9 CEL 0 ATM 1
- 10 CEL 1 ATM 2
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Carl Starfelt (Atlético, own goal) | 0–1 | +25% Atlético |
| 2. 68' | Iago Aspas (Celta) | 1–1 | +39% Celta |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 8, 2025-26
- Osasuna 2–1 Getafe Oct 3, 2025 · replay 61% for Osasuna
- Oviedo 0–2 Levante Oct 4, 2025 · replay 51% for Levante
- Girona 2–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2025 · replay 55% for Girona
- Athletic 2–1 Mallorca Oct 4, 2025 · replay 57% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal Oct 4, 2025 · replay 68% for Real Madrid
- Alavés 3–1 Elche Oct 5, 2025 · replay 58% for Alavés
- Sevilla 4–1 Barcelona Oct 5, 2025 · replay 26% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo Oct 5, 2025 · replay 41% for Rayo
- Espanyol 1–2 Betis Oct 5, 2025 · replay 53% for Betis