Matchday 12 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 9, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mallorca 1–0 Getafe: lucky or expected?
Mallorca beat Getafe 1–0, and the goals lean Mallorca’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Getafe, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mallorca were expected to score 1.1 here and Getafe 0.8.
What the goals say
Luck index +42 Mallorca lucky · −42 Getafe
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mallorca win 4, 3 end level, Getafe win 3.
- 1 MLL 1 GET 0
- 2 MLL 1 GET 0
- 3 MLL 2 GET 0
- 4 MLL 3 GET 0
- 5 MLL 1 GET 1
- 6 MLL 0 GET 0
- 7 MLL 1 GET 1
- 8 MLL 0 GET 2
- 9 MLL 1 GET 2
- 10 MLL 0 GET 1
The goals
Mallorca’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca) | 1–0 | +23% Mallorca |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Mallorca win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2025-26
- Elche 1–1 Real Sociedad Nov 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Girona 1–0 Alavés Nov 8, 2025 · replay 59% for Girona
- Sevilla 1–0 Osasuna Nov 8, 2025 · replay 55% for Sevilla
- Atlético 3–1 Levante Nov 8, 2025 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–2 Villarreal Nov 8, 2025 · replay 58% for Villarreal
- Athletic 1–0 Oviedo Nov 9, 2025 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Rayo 0–0 Real Madrid Nov 9, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Betis Nov 9, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 2–4 Barcelona Nov 9, 2025 · replay 66% for Barcelona