luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 12 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 9, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Rayo 0–0 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?

Rayo and Real Madrid drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Rayo win 2 of 10, Real Madrid 5, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Rayo were expected to score 1.0 here and Real Madrid 1.5.

Full time

Goals
Rayo Vallecano 0
Real Madrid 0

November 9, 2025

Luck index +13 Rayo about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Rayo win 2, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 5.

  1. 1 RAY 3 RMA 2
  2. 2 RAY 2 RMA 0
  3. 3 RAY 1 RMA 1
  4. 4 RAY 1 RMA 1
  5. 5 RAY 1 RMA 1
  6. 6 RAY 0 RMA 3
  7. 7 RAY 0 RMA 2
  8. 8 RAY 0 RMA 2
  9. 9 RAY 1 RMA 2
  10. 10 RAY 1 RMA 2

The goals

No goals: Rayo and Real Madrid drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (37% for Rayo, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

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