Matchday 13 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 1–1 Girona: lucky or expected?
Betis and Girona drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Betis win 6 of 10, Girona 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.8 here and Girona 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 |
 Girona | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −22 Betis about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 6, 2 end level, Girona win 2.
- 1 BET 2 GIR 1
- 2 BET 2 GIR 1
- 3 BET 1 GIR 0
- 4 BET 2 GIR 0
- 5 BET 2 GIR 0
- 6 BET 3 GIR 0
- 7 BET 1 GIR 1
- 8 BET 2 GIR 2
- 9 BET 1 GIR 3
- 10 BET 1 GIR 2
The goals
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 20' | Vladyslav Vanat (Girona) | 0–1 | +27% Girona |
| 2. 75' | Valentin Gomez (Betis) | 1–1 | +42% Betis |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 13, 2025-26
- Valencia 1–0 Levante Nov 21, 2025 · replay 64% for Valencia
- Alavés 0–1 Celta Nov 22, 2025 · replay 50% for Celta
- Barcelona 4–0 Athletic Nov 22, 2025 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Osasuna 1–3 Real Sociedad Nov 22, 2025 · replay 43% for Real Sociedad
- Villarreal 2–1 Mallorca Nov 22, 2025 · replay 74% for Villarreal
- Oviedo 0–0 Rayo Nov 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Getafe 0–1 Atlético Nov 23, 2025 · replay 54% for Atlético
- Elche 2–2 Real Madrid Nov 23, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Espanyol 2–1 Sevilla Nov 24, 2025 · replay 61% for Espanyol