Matchday 13 · La Liga 2025-26 · November 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elche 2–2 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Elche and Real Madrid drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Elche win 2 of 10, Real Madrid 6, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elche were expected to score 1.1 here and Real Madrid 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Elche | 2 |
 Real Madrid | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +16 Elche about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elche win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 ELC 2 RMA 1
- 2 ELC 2 RMA 0
- 3 ELC 2 RMA 2
- 4 ELC 1 RMA 1
- 5 ELC 0 RMA 4
- 6 ELC 0 RMA 2
- 7 ELC 3 RMA 5
- 8 ELC 1 RMA 2
- 9 ELC 1 RMA 2
- 10 ELC 0 RMA 1
The goals
Elche’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 53' | Aleix Febas (Elche) | 1–0 | +31% Elche |
| 2. 78' | Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid) | 1–1 | +41% Real Madrid |
| 3. 84' | Álvaro Rodríguez (Elche) | 2–1 | +45% Elche |
| 4. 87' | Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) | 2–2 | +48% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
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