Matchday 19 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 3, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 0–3 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Athletic 3–0, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.0 here and Real Madrid 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 |
 Real Madrid | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +31 Real Madrid lucky · −31 Athletic
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 ATH 1 RMA 0
- 2 ATH 3 RMA 1
- 3 ATH 0 RMA 0
- 4 ATH 1 RMA 1
- 5 ATH 1 RMA 5
- 6 ATH 1 RMA 3
- 7 ATH 1 RMA 3
- 8 ATH 0 RMA 1
- 9 ATH 2 RMA 3
- 10 ATH 0 RMA 1
The goals
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 0–1 | +25% Real Madrid |
| 2. 42' | Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid) | 0–2 | +18% Real Madrid |
| 3. 59' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 0–3 | +4% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- Barcelona 3–1 Atlético Dec 2, 2025 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Getafe 1–2 Real Sociedad Jan 9, 2026 · replay 42% for Real Sociedad
- Oviedo 1–1 Betis Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Villarreal 3–1 Alavés Jan 10, 2026 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Girona 1–0 Osasuna Jan 10, 2026 · replay 56% for Girona
- Valencia 1–1 Elche Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Mallorca Jan 11, 2026 · replay 65% for Rayo
- Levante 1–1 Espanyol Jan 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Sevilla 0–1 Celta Jan 12, 2026 · replay 52% for Celta