Matchday 19 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Valencia 1–1 Elche: lucky or expected?
Valencia and Elche drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Valencia win 5 of 10, Elche 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Valencia were expected to score 1.6 here and Elche 1.1.
What the goals say
Luck index −11 Valencia about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 5, 3 end level, Elche win 2.
- 1 VAL 1 ELC 0
- 2 VAL 2 ELC 1
- 3 VAL 3 ELC 1
- 4 VAL 3 ELC 1
- 5 VAL 3 ELC 0
- 6 VAL 1 ELC 1
- 7 VAL 1 ELC 1
- 8 VAL 1 ELC 1
- 9 VAL 2 ELC 4
- 10 VAL 0 ELC 1
The goals
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 75' | Grady Diangana (Elche) | 0–1 | +42% Elche |
| 2. 87' | Pepelu (Valencia, penalty) | 1–1 | +48% Valencia |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- Barcelona 3–1 Atlético Dec 2, 2025 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Athletic 0–3 Real Madrid Dec 3, 2025 · replay 69% for Real Madrid
- Getafe 1–2 Real Sociedad Jan 9, 2026 · replay 42% for Real Sociedad
- Oviedo 1–1 Betis Jan 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Villarreal 3–1 Alavés Jan 10, 2026 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Girona 1–0 Osasuna Jan 10, 2026 · replay 56% for Girona
- Rayo 2–1 Mallorca Jan 11, 2026 · replay 65% for Rayo
- Levante 1–1 Espanyol Jan 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Sevilla 0–1 Celta Jan 12, 2026 · replay 52% for Celta